REI Apollo building
Predicts property sale within 6 months — replaces Alpha · HistGradientBoosting · 5-county pilot (as of 2026-06-05)
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lift @top-1%
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AUC
5-co
counties
177
features
v8
last ship
Overview. In plain terms: for every property in a county, this model estimates how likely the owner is to sell in the next six months, so acquisition teams can prioritize who to contact. Supervised replacement for Alpha (8020REI's 25-signal hand-weighted heuristic) at step 4 of the Gaia ETL. Per-county HistGradientBoosting with isotonic calibration, walk-forward folds, and CRM-leak guard. Win condition: top-decile recall ≥ Alpha AND ≥ Camilo, calibration within ±15%, on the locked March 2025 head-to-head.
Detail pages
How it works →
HistGB architecture, isotonic calibration, per-county walk-forward folds, CRM-leak guard.
Pipeline →
The 7-stage build spine — data & silver, label, features (tiers A–F), walk-forward folds, training, calibration, ranking + output.
Rules →
Hard boundaries — label definition, T0 / no-future-data, leakage-audit features, 6-mo embargo, true-prior calibration, locked-test gate, win condition.
Model card →
Performance vs Alpha across 5 counties, architecture summary, open audit items.
Changelog →
Phase 1–3 build history, fold results, leakage audits, Apollo-vs-Alpha head-to-head progress.